Web interface

CANARY Web Console

Security-advisory forecasting for Jenkins plugins from public signals, evaluated honestly: four validation layers, one pre-registered criterion, and every number on this site traceable to the layer that produced it.

Plugin scoring

Score a plugin

Review the CANARY score, rationale, and supporting evidence.

Core workflow

The forecast comes from the frozen champion configuration applied to the newest panel month; the signals beneath it describe the plugin's current state and are not part of the validated forecast.

AI explanation

Explain this score

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CANARY forecast · as of 2026-06

scm-api

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression: the frozen champion fold model (oot_champion/fold_2025-11, trained on months before 2025-11, labels as known 2025-12) applied to the newest month of the panel. Inference only; no outcome for this month is known yet.

Validated lineage
Share of paneltop 1.9%
Rank39 of 2,053
Score63.4%

Read the rank, not the score. The score is the model's raw output and is not a probability: on the holdout the champion's mean score is about 0.5 against an observed advisory rate of 1 percent. Across the pre-registered holdout, reviewing the top fifth of plugins by this ranking caught about half of the advisories that followed.

Honest track record

Where scm-api ranked before each window

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression, embargoed rolling backtest: the rank this plugin held among every scored plugin at each forecast date, using only what was knowable then. Shaded months are the pre-registered holdout.

Recorded, not re-scored

Scored at 32 forecast dates; on average in the top 5.1% of plugins (top 1.9% across the holdout). No advisory followed any of those dates within six months.

out-of-time holdout0255075100top 20%2023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092025-122023-05 · rank 57 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.738 no advisory within six months2023-06 · rank 62 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.737 no advisory within six months2023-07 · rank 66 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.741 no advisory within six months2023-08 · rank 91 of 2053 · 96th percentile · score 0.720 no advisory within six months2023-09 · rank 160 of 2053 · 92th percentile · score 0.695 no advisory within six months2023-10 · rank 172 of 2053 · 92th percentile · score 0.691 no advisory within six months2023-11 · rank 106 of 2053 · 95th percentile · score 0.707 no advisory within six months2023-12 · rank 113 of 2053 · 95th percentile · score 0.700 no advisory within six months2024-01 · rank 179 of 2053 · 91th percentile · score 0.670 no advisory within six months2024-02 · rank 106 of 2053 · 95th percentile · score 0.694 no advisory within six months2024-03 · rank 125 of 2053 · 94th percentile · score 0.683 no advisory within six months2024-04 · rank 94 of 2053 · 95th percentile · score 0.700 no advisory within six months2024-05 · rank 92 of 2053 · 96th percentile · score 0.692 no advisory within six months2024-06 · rank 124 of 2053 · 94th percentile · score 0.671 no advisory within six months2024-07 · rank 126 of 2053 · 94th percentile · score 0.666 no advisory within six months2024-08 · rank 137 of 2053 · 93th percentile · score 0.665 no advisory within six months2024-09 · rank 165 of 2053 · 92th percentile · score 0.643 no advisory within six months2024-10 · rank 116 of 2053 · 94th percentile · score 0.670 no advisory within six months2024-11 · rank 249 of 2053 · 88th percentile · score 0.622 no advisory within six months2024-12 · rank 254 of 2053 · 88th percentile · score 0.620 no advisory within six months2025-01 · rank 169 of 2053 · 92th percentile · score 0.647 no advisory within six months2025-02 · rank 126 of 2053 · 94th percentile · score 0.656 no advisory within six months2025-03 · rank 51 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.692 no advisory within six months2025-04 · rank 83 of 2053 · 96th percentile · score 0.660 no advisory within six months2025-05 · rank 69 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.658 no advisory within six months2025-06 · rank 66 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.665 no advisory within six months2025-07 · rank 72 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.660 no advisory within six months2025-08 · rank 38 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.705 no advisory within six months2025-09 · rank 46 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.686 no advisory within six months2025-10 · rank 38 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.698 no advisory within six months2025-11 · rank 21 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.710 no advisory within six months2025-12 · rank 24 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.724 no advisory within six monthsadvisory followed within six monthsno advisory in window
Holdout monthScoreRankShare of panelWhat followed
2025-0766.0%72 of 2,053top 3.5%none within six months
2025-0870.5%38 of 2,053top 1.8%none within six months
2025-0968.6%46 of 2,053top 2.2%none within six months
2025-1069.8%38 of 2,053top 1.8%none within six months
2025-1171.0%21 of 2,053top 0.97%none within six months
2025-1272.4%24 of 2,053top 1.1%none within six months

Current-state context

Supporting signals

Maintenance history, governance artifacts, SLSA provenance and known advisories in dependencies, read from the plugin's current public state. A practitioner's dashboard, not part of the validated forecast.

Heuristic · not validated

Key risk signals

  • No advisories found in local dataset.
  • Latest release: 2026-02-04.
  • Requires Jenkins core 2.504.3.
  • Last commit: November 2, 2026 — live data from GitHub.
  • No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).
  • No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).
  • Dependency risk: 1 of 3 dep(s) have advisories.
  • Plugin health score 100/100 — acceptable maintenance posture.
Feature details (34 keys)
{
  "advisory_count": 0,
  "latest_advisory_date": null,
  "days_since_latest_advisory": null,
  "advisory_within_90d": 0,
  "advisory_within_365d": 0,
  "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
  "max_cvss_base_score_observed": null,
  "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": null,
  "swh_present": true,
  "swh_days_since_last_commit": 1.3,
  "swh_commit_count": 11211,
  "swh_has_security_md": false,
  "swh_has_dependabot": false,
  "swh_has_github_actions": false,
  "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
  "swh_has_changelog": true,
  "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 455,
  "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
  "required_core": "2.504.3",
  "dependency_count": 3,
  "security_warning_count": 0,
  "active_security_warning_count": 0,
  "release_timestamp": "2026-02-04T22:56:48+00:00",
  "days_since_release": 277,
  "dependency_plugins": [
    "asm-api",
    "commons-lang3-api",
    "structs"
  ],
  "dependency_total": 3,
  "dependency_risk_points": 2,
  "dependency_risk_summary": {
    "deps_with_any_advisory": 1,
    "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 0,
    "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
    "worst_dep_max_cvss": null,
    "worst_dep_id": null,
    "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": null
  },
  "dependency_missing_data": {
    "snapshot_missing": 0,
    "advisories_missing": 0,
    "healthscore_missing": 0
  },
  "dependency_details_top": [
    {
      "plugin_id": "structs",
      "advisory_count": 1,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-06-26",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": null,
      "security_warning_count": 1,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 2,
      "reasons": [
        "1 advisories (+2)."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "healthscore_value": 100,
  "healthscore_date": "2026-02-05T14:32:38.748203Z",
  "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
  "score_components": {
    "advisory_history": 0,
    "advisory_severity": 0,
    "staleness": 0,
    "active_warnings": 0,
    "governance": 6,
    "dependency": 0,
    "health_score": 0,
    "security_sensitivity": 0
  }
}
JSON payload
{
  "plugin": "scm-api",
  "score": 6,
  "reasons": [
    "No advisories found in local dataset.",
    "Latest release: 2026-02-04.",
    "Requires Jenkins core 2.504.3.",
    "Recent commit activity (1 days ago) suggests active maintenance.",
    "No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).",
    "No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).",
    "Dependency risk: 1 of 3 dep(s) have advisories.",
    "Plugin health score 100/100 — acceptable maintenance posture."
  ],
  "features": {
    "advisory_count": 0,
    "latest_advisory_date": null,
    "days_since_latest_advisory": null,
    "advisory_within_90d": 0,
    "advisory_within_365d": 0,
    "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
    "max_cvss_base_score_observed": null,
    "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": null,
    "swh_present": true,
    "swh_days_since_last_commit": 1.3,
    "swh_commit_count": 11211,
    "swh_has_security_md": false,
    "swh_has_dependabot": false,
    "swh_has_github_actions": false,
    "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
    "swh_has_changelog": true,
    "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 455,
    "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
    "required_core": "2.504.3",
    "dependency_count": 3,
    "security_warning_count": 0,
    "active_security_warning_count": 0,
    "release_timestamp": "2026-02-04T22:56:48+00:00",
    "days_since_release": 277,
    "dependency_plugins": [
      "asm-api",
      "commons-lang3-api",
      "structs"
    ],
    "dependency_total": 3,
    "dependency_risk_points": 2,
    "dependency_risk_summary": {
      "deps_with_any_advisory": 1,
      "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 0,
      "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
      "worst_dep_max_cvss": null,
      "worst_dep_id": null,
      "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": null
    },
    "dependency_missing_data": {
      "snapshot_missing": 0,
      "advisories_missing": 0,
      "healthscore_missing": 0
    },
    "dependency_details_top": [
      {
        "plugin_id": "structs",
        "advisory_count": 1,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-06-26",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": null,
        "security_warning_count": 1,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 2,
        "reasons": [
          "1 advisories (+2)."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "healthscore_value": 100,
    "healthscore_date": "2026-02-05T14:32:38.748203Z",
    "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
    "score_components": {
      "advisory_history": 0,
      "advisory_severity": 0,
      "staleness": 0,
      "active_warnings": 0,
      "governance": 6,
      "dependency": 0,
      "health_score": 0,
      "security_sensitivity": 0
    }
  }
}