Web interface

CANARY Web Console

Security-advisory forecasting for Jenkins plugins from public signals, evaluated honestly: four validation layers, one pre-registered criterion, and every number on this site traceable to the layer that produced it.

Plugin scoring

Score a plugin

Review the CANARY score, rationale, and supporting evidence.

Core workflow

The forecast comes from the frozen champion configuration applied to the newest panel month; the signals beneath it describe the plugin's current state and are not part of the validated forecast.

AI explanation

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CANARY forecast · as of 2026-06

lockable-resources

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression: the frozen champion fold model (oot_champion/fold_2025-11, trained on months before 2025-11, labels as known 2025-12) applied to the newest month of the panel. Inference only; no outcome for this month is known yet.

Validated lineage
Share of paneltop 0.24%
Rank6 of 2,053
Score71.6%

Read the rank, not the score. The score is the model's raw output and is not a probability: on the holdout the champion's mean score is about 0.5 against an observed advisory rate of 1 percent. Across the pre-registered holdout, reviewing the top fifth of plugins by this ranking caught about half of the advisories that followed.

Honest track record

Where lockable-resources ranked before each window

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression, embargoed rolling backtest: the rank this plugin held among every scored plugin at each forecast date, using only what was knowable then. Shaded months are the pre-registered holdout.

Recorded, not re-scored

Scored at 32 forecast dates; on average in the top 2.0% of plugins (top 1.3% across the holdout). No advisory followed any of those dates within six months.

out-of-time holdout0255075100top 20%2023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092025-122023-05 · rank 239 of 2053 · 88th percentile · score 0.662 no advisory within six months2023-06 · rank 166 of 2053 · 92th percentile · score 0.685 no advisory within six months2023-07 · rank 60 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.755 no advisory within six months2023-08 · rank 58 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.744 no advisory within six months2023-09 · rank 52 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.765 no advisory within six months2023-10 · rank 53 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.767 no advisory within six months2023-11 · rank 46 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.780 no advisory within six months2023-12 · rank 48 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.775 no advisory within six months2024-01 · rank 35 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.820 no advisory within six months2024-02 · rank 33 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.841 no advisory within six months2024-03 · rank 28 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.860 no advisory within six months2024-04 · rank 26 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.851 no advisory within six months2024-05 · rank 27 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.831 no advisory within six months2024-06 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.827 no advisory within six months2024-07 · rank 34 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.803 no advisory within six months2024-08 · rank 21 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.792 no advisory within six months2024-09 · rank 20 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.789 no advisory within six months2024-10 · rank 15 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.800 no advisory within six months2024-11 · rank 16 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.792 no advisory within six months2024-12 · rank 13 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.813 no advisory within six months2025-01 · rank 18 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.765 no advisory within six months2025-02 · rank 17 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.771 no advisory within six months2025-03 · rank 18 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.760 no advisory within six months2025-04 · rank 42 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.712 no advisory within six months2025-05 · rank 36 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.708 no advisory within six months2025-06 · rank 46 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.696 no advisory within six months2025-07 · rank 53 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.678 no advisory within six months2025-08 · rank 14 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.763 no advisory within six months2025-09 · rank 31 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.724 no advisory within six months2025-10 · rank 20 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.741 no advisory within six months2025-11 · rank 25 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.703 no advisory within six months2025-12 · rank 27 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.707 no advisory within six monthsadvisory followed within six monthsno advisory in window
Holdout monthScoreRankShare of panelWhat followed
2025-0767.8%53 of 2,053top 2.5%none within six months
2025-0876.3%14 of 2,053top 0.63%none within six months
2025-0972.4%31 of 2,053top 1.5%none within six months
2025-1074.1%20 of 2,053top 0.93%none within six months
2025-1170.3%25 of 2,053top 1.2%none within six months
2025-1270.7%27 of 2,053top 1.3%none within six months

Current-state context

Supporting signals

Maintenance history, governance artifacts, SLSA provenance and known advisories in dependencies, read from the plugin's current public state. A practitioner's dashboard, not part of the validated forecast.

Heuristic · not validated

Key risk signals

  • 3 prior advisory record(s) — history +6, recency +0 (0 within 90d, 0 within 365 days); component total +6 (cap 30).
  • No advisory activity in the last 365 days — historical record only.
  • Advisory severity (max CVSS 5.4 — Medium): +6 (cap 15).
  • Latest release: 2026-08-25.
  • Requires Jenkins core 2.541.3.
  • Last commit: November 8, 2026 — live data from GitHub.
  • Recent release activity supports active maintenance.
  • 3 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.
  • No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).
  • No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).
  • No changelog detected — release transparency limited (+2).
  • Dependency risk: 6 of 8 dep(s) have advisories; worst: matrix-project (CVSS 8.8).
  • Plugin health score 100/100 — acceptable maintenance posture.
Feature details (34 keys)
{
  "advisory_count": 3,
  "latest_advisory_date": "2020-09-23",
  "days_since_latest_advisory": 2238,
  "advisory_within_90d": 0,
  "advisory_within_365d": 0,
  "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
  "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 5.4,
  "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "Medium",
  "swh_present": true,
  "swh_days_since_last_commit": 8.4,
  "swh_commit_count": 16886,
  "swh_has_security_md": false,
  "swh_has_dependabot": false,
  "swh_has_github_actions": false,
  "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
  "swh_has_changelog": false,
  "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 3153,
  "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
  "required_core": "2.541.3",
  "dependency_count": 8,
  "security_warning_count": 3,
  "active_security_warning_count": 0,
  "release_timestamp": "2026-08-25T16:37:41+00:00",
  "days_since_release": 75,
  "dependency_plugins": [
    "caffeine-api",
    "credentials",
    "mailer",
    "matrix-project",
    "script-security",
    "structs",
    "variant",
    "workflow-support"
  ],
  "dependency_total": 8,
  "dependency_risk_points": 57,
  "dependency_risk_summary": {
    "deps_with_any_advisory": 6,
    "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 1,
    "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
    "worst_dep_max_cvss": 8.8,
    "worst_dep_id": "matrix-project",
    "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2024-01-24"
  },
  "dependency_missing_data": {
    "snapshot_missing": 0,
    "advisories_missing": 0,
    "healthscore_missing": 0
  },
  "dependency_details_top": [
    {
      "plugin_id": "script-security",
      "advisory_count": 26,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
      "recent_advisory_365d": true,
      "max_cvss": 8.8,
      "security_warning_count": 28,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 17,
      "reasons": [
        "26 advisories (+10).",
        "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4).",
        "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "matrix-project",
      "advisory_count": 4,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-01-24",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 8.8,
      "security_warning_count": 5,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 97,
      "risk_points": 12,
      "reasons": [
        "4 advisories (+8).",
        "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "mailer",
      "advisory_count": 4,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2022-01-12",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 4.8,
      "security_warning_count": 4,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 10,
      "reasons": [
        "4 advisories (+8).",
        "Max CVSS 4.8 (+2)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "credentials",
      "advisory_count": 4,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-10-02",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 4.3,
      "security_warning_count": 4,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 10,
      "reasons": [
        "4 advisories (+8).",
        "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "workflow-support",
      "advisory_count": 2,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2022-10-19",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 8.8,
      "security_warning_count": 2,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 8,
      "reasons": [
        "2 advisories (+4).",
        "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4)."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "healthscore_value": 100,
  "healthscore_date": "2026-02-24T00:29:31.751539Z",
  "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
  "score_components": {
    "advisory_history": 6,
    "advisory_severity": 6,
    "staleness": 0,
    "active_warnings": 0,
    "governance": 8,
    "dependency": 5,
    "health_score": 0,
    "security_sensitivity": 0
  }
}
JSON payload
{
  "plugin": "lockable-resources",
  "score": 25,
  "reasons": [
    "3 prior advisory record(s) — history +6, recency +0 (0 within 90d, 0 within 365 days); component total +6 (cap 30).",
    "No advisory activity in the last 365 days — historical record only.",
    "Advisory severity (max CVSS 5.4 — Medium): +6 (cap 15).",
    "Latest release: 2026-08-25.",
    "Requires Jenkins core 2.541.3.",
    "Recent commit activity (8 days ago) suggests active maintenance.",
    "Recent release activity supports active maintenance.",
    "3 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.",
    "No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).",
    "No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).",
    "No changelog detected — release transparency limited (+2).",
    "Dependency risk: 6 of 8 dep(s) have advisories; worst: matrix-project (CVSS 8.8).",
    "Plugin health score 100/100 — acceptable maintenance posture."
  ],
  "features": {
    "advisory_count": 3,
    "latest_advisory_date": "2020-09-23",
    "days_since_latest_advisory": 2238,
    "advisory_within_90d": 0,
    "advisory_within_365d": 0,
    "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
    "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 5.4,
    "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "Medium",
    "swh_present": true,
    "swh_days_since_last_commit": 8.4,
    "swh_commit_count": 16886,
    "swh_has_security_md": false,
    "swh_has_dependabot": false,
    "swh_has_github_actions": false,
    "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
    "swh_has_changelog": false,
    "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 3153,
    "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
    "required_core": "2.541.3",
    "dependency_count": 8,
    "security_warning_count": 3,
    "active_security_warning_count": 0,
    "release_timestamp": "2026-08-25T16:37:41+00:00",
    "days_since_release": 75,
    "dependency_plugins": [
      "caffeine-api",
      "credentials",
      "mailer",
      "matrix-project",
      "script-security",
      "structs",
      "variant",
      "workflow-support"
    ],
    "dependency_total": 8,
    "dependency_risk_points": 57,
    "dependency_risk_summary": {
      "deps_with_any_advisory": 6,
      "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 1,
      "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
      "worst_dep_max_cvss": 8.8,
      "worst_dep_id": "matrix-project",
      "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2024-01-24"
    },
    "dependency_missing_data": {
      "snapshot_missing": 0,
      "advisories_missing": 0,
      "healthscore_missing": 0
    },
    "dependency_details_top": [
      {
        "plugin_id": "script-security",
        "advisory_count": 26,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
        "recent_advisory_365d": true,
        "max_cvss": 8.8,
        "security_warning_count": 28,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 17,
        "reasons": [
          "26 advisories (+10).",
          "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4).",
          "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "matrix-project",
        "advisory_count": 4,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-01-24",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 8.8,
        "security_warning_count": 5,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 97,
        "risk_points": 12,
        "reasons": [
          "4 advisories (+8).",
          "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "mailer",
        "advisory_count": 4,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2022-01-12",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 4.8,
        "security_warning_count": 4,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 10,
        "reasons": [
          "4 advisories (+8).",
          "Max CVSS 4.8 (+2)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "credentials",
        "advisory_count": 4,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-10-02",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 4.3,
        "security_warning_count": 4,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 10,
        "reasons": [
          "4 advisories (+8).",
          "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "workflow-support",
        "advisory_count": 2,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2022-10-19",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 8.8,
        "security_warning_count": 2,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 8,
        "reasons": [
          "2 advisories (+4).",
          "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4)."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "healthscore_value": 100,
    "healthscore_date": "2026-02-24T00:29:31.751539Z",
    "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
    "score_components": {
      "advisory_history": 6,
      "advisory_severity": 6,
      "staleness": 0,
      "active_warnings": 0,
      "governance": 8,
      "dependency": 5,
      "health_score": 0,
      "security_sensitivity": 0
    }
  }
}