Web interface

CANARY Web Console

Security-advisory forecasting for Jenkins plugins from public signals, evaluated honestly: four validation layers, one pre-registered criterion, and every number on this site traceable to the layer that produced it.

Plugin scoring

Score a plugin

Review the CANARY score, rationale, and supporting evidence.

Core workflow

The forecast comes from the frozen champion configuration applied to the newest panel month; the signals beneath it describe the plugin's current state and are not part of the validated forecast.

AI explanation

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CANARY forecast · as of 2026-06

kubernetes

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression: the frozen champion fold model (oot_champion/fold_2025-11, trained on months before 2025-11, labels as known 2025-12) applied to the newest month of the panel. Inference only; no outcome for this month is known yet.

Validated lineage
Share of paneltop 1.6%
Rank34 of 2,053
Score64.2%

Read the rank, not the score. The score is the model's raw output and is not a probability: on the holdout the champion's mean score is about 0.5 against an observed advisory rate of 1 percent. Across the pre-registered holdout, reviewing the top fifth of plugins by this ranking caught about half of the advisories that followed.

Honest track record

Where kubernetes ranked before each window

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression, embargoed rolling backtest: the rank this plugin held among every scored plugin at each forecast date, using only what was knowable then. Shaded months are the pre-registered holdout.

Recorded, not re-scored

Scored at 32 forecast dates; on average in the top 2.5% of plugins (top 0.27% across the holdout). No advisory followed any of those dates within six months.

out-of-time holdout0255075100top 20%2023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092025-122023-05 · rank 41 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.799 no advisory within six months2023-06 · rank 92 of 2053 · 96th percentile · score 0.712 no advisory within six months2023-07 · rank 167 of 2053 · 92th percentile · score 0.684 no advisory within six months2023-08 · rank 412 of 2053 · 80th percentile · score 0.639 no advisory within six months2023-09 · rank 233 of 2053 · 89th percentile · score 0.674 no advisory within six months2023-10 · rank 123 of 2053 · 94th percentile · score 0.709 no advisory within six months2023-11 · rank 140 of 2053 · 93th percentile · score 0.686 no advisory within six months2023-12 · rank 92 of 2053 · 96th percentile · score 0.712 no advisory within six months2024-01 · rank 38 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.807 no advisory within six months2024-02 · rank 49 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.777 no advisory within six months2024-03 · rank 43 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.789 no advisory within six months2024-04 · rank 77 of 2053 · 96th percentile · score 0.718 no advisory within six months2024-05 · rank 43 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.775 no advisory within six months2024-06 · rank 46 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.775 no advisory within six months2024-07 · rank 32 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.812 no advisory within six months2024-08 · rank 9 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.827 no advisory within six months2024-09 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.868 no advisory within six months2024-10 · rank 1 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.877 no advisory within six months2024-11 · rank 1 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.898 no advisory within six months2024-12 · rank 1 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.901 no advisory within six months2025-01 · rank 6 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.831 no advisory within six months2025-02 · rank 5 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.842 no advisory within six months2025-03 · rank 3 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.871 no advisory within six months2025-04 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.895 no advisory within six months2025-05 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.893 no advisory within six months2025-06 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.890 no advisory within six months2025-07 · rank 5 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.835 no advisory within six months2025-08 · rank 4 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.848 no advisory within six months2025-09 · rank 8 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.803 no advisory within six months2025-10 · rank 10 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.765 no advisory within six months2025-11 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.788 no advisory within six months2025-12 · rank 5 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.792 no advisory within six monthsadvisory followed within six monthsno advisory in window
Holdout monthScoreRankShare of panelWhat followed
2025-0783.5%5 of 2,053top 0.19%none within six months
2025-0884.8%4 of 2,053top 0.15%none within six months
2025-0980.3%8 of 2,053top 0.34%none within six months
2025-1076.5%10 of 2,053top 0.44%none within six months
2025-1178.8%7 of 2,053top 0.29%none within six months
2025-1279.2%5 of 2,053top 0.19%none within six months

Current-state context

Supporting signals

Maintenance history, governance artifacts, SLSA provenance and known advisories in dependencies, read from the plugin's current public state. A practitioner's dashboard, not part of the validated forecast.

Heuristic · not validated

Key risk signals

  • 4 prior advisory record(s) — history +8, recency +0 (0 within 90d, 0 within 365 days); component total +8 (cap 30).
  • No advisory activity in the last 365 days — historical record only.
  • Advisory severity (max CVSS 4.3 — Medium): +7 (cap 15).
  • Latest release: 2026-08-13.
  • Requires Jenkins core 2.516.3.
  • Last commit: October 7, 2026 — live data from GitHub.
  • Recent release activity supports active maintenance.
  • 6 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.
  • No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).
  • No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).
  • Dependency risk: 8 of 19 dep(s) have advisories; worst: workflow-cps (CVSS 8.8).
  • Plugin health score 97/100 — acceptable maintenance posture.
Feature details (34 keys)
{
  "advisory_count": 4,
  "latest_advisory_date": "2023-04-12",
  "days_since_latest_advisory": 1307,
  "advisory_within_90d": 0,
  "advisory_within_365d": 0,
  "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
  "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 4.3,
  "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "Medium",
  "swh_present": true,
  "swh_days_since_last_commit": 0.8,
  "swh_commit_count": 74589,
  "swh_has_security_md": false,
  "swh_has_dependabot": false,
  "swh_has_github_actions": false,
  "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
  "swh_has_changelog": true,
  "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 1397,
  "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
  "required_core": "2.516.3",
  "dependency_count": 19,
  "security_warning_count": 6,
  "active_security_warning_count": 0,
  "release_timestamp": "2026-08-13T15:06:57+00:00",
  "days_since_release": 87,
  "dependency_plugins": [
    "authentication-tokens",
    "bouncycastle-api",
    "caffeine-api",
    "cloudbees-folder",
    "credentials",
    "credentials-binding",
    "durable-task",
    "jackson2-api",
    "kubernetes-client-api",
    "kubernetes-credentials",
    "metrics",
    "pipeline-model-extensions",
    "plain-credentials",
    "structs",
    "variant",
    "workflow-api",
    "workflow-cps",
    "workflow-durable-task-step",
    "workflow-step-api"
  ],
  "dependency_total": 19,
  "dependency_risk_points": 54,
  "dependency_risk_summary": {
    "deps_with_any_advisory": 8,
    "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 2,
    "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
    "worst_dep_max_cvss": 8.8,
    "worst_dep_id": "workflow-cps",
    "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24"
  },
  "dependency_missing_data": {
    "snapshot_missing": 0,
    "advisories_missing": 0,
    "healthscore_missing": 0
  },
  "dependency_details_top": [
    {
      "plugin_id": "workflow-cps",
      "advisory_count": 11,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
      "recent_advisory_365d": true,
      "max_cvss": 8.8,
      "security_warning_count": 13,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 17,
      "reasons": [
        "11 advisories (+10).",
        "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4).",
        "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "credentials-binding",
      "advisory_count": 6,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2026-05-27",
      "recent_advisory_365d": true,
      "max_cvss": 7.5,
      "security_warning_count": 7,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 17,
      "reasons": [
        "6 advisories (+10).",
        "Max CVSS 7.5 (+4).",
        "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "credentials",
      "advisory_count": 4,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-10-02",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 4.3,
      "security_warning_count": 4,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 10,
      "reasons": [
        "4 advisories (+8).",
        "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "cloudbees-folder",
      "advisory_count": 1,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2023-08-16",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 8.0,
      "security_warning_count": 3,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 6,
      "reasons": [
        "1 advisories (+2).",
        "Max CVSS 8.0 (+4)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "plain-credentials",
      "advisory_count": 1,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-06-26",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 4.3,
      "security_warning_count": 1,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 96,
      "risk_points": 4,
      "reasons": [
        "1 advisories (+2).",
        "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "healthscore_value": 97,
  "healthscore_date": "2026-02-17T00:27:51.403129Z",
  "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
  "score_components": {
    "advisory_history": 8,
    "advisory_severity": 7,
    "staleness": 0,
    "active_warnings": 0,
    "governance": 6,
    "dependency": 5,
    "health_score": 0,
    "security_sensitivity": 0
  }
}
JSON payload
{
  "plugin": "kubernetes",
  "score": 26,
  "reasons": [
    "4 prior advisory record(s) — history +8, recency +0 (0 within 90d, 0 within 365 days); component total +8 (cap 30).",
    "No advisory activity in the last 365 days — historical record only.",
    "Advisory severity (max CVSS 4.3 — Medium): +7 (cap 15).",
    "Latest release: 2026-08-13.",
    "Requires Jenkins core 2.516.3.",
    "Recent commit activity (0 days ago) suggests active maintenance.",
    "Recent release activity supports active maintenance.",
    "6 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.",
    "No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).",
    "No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).",
    "Dependency risk: 8 of 19 dep(s) have advisories; worst: workflow-cps (CVSS 8.8).",
    "Plugin health score 97/100 — acceptable maintenance posture."
  ],
  "features": {
    "advisory_count": 4,
    "latest_advisory_date": "2023-04-12",
    "days_since_latest_advisory": 1307,
    "advisory_within_90d": 0,
    "advisory_within_365d": 0,
    "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
    "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 4.3,
    "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "Medium",
    "swh_present": true,
    "swh_days_since_last_commit": 0.8,
    "swh_commit_count": 74589,
    "swh_has_security_md": false,
    "swh_has_dependabot": false,
    "swh_has_github_actions": false,
    "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
    "swh_has_changelog": true,
    "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 1397,
    "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
    "required_core": "2.516.3",
    "dependency_count": 19,
    "security_warning_count": 6,
    "active_security_warning_count": 0,
    "release_timestamp": "2026-08-13T15:06:57+00:00",
    "days_since_release": 87,
    "dependency_plugins": [
      "authentication-tokens",
      "bouncycastle-api",
      "caffeine-api",
      "cloudbees-folder",
      "credentials",
      "credentials-binding",
      "durable-task",
      "jackson2-api",
      "kubernetes-client-api",
      "kubernetes-credentials",
      "metrics",
      "pipeline-model-extensions",
      "plain-credentials",
      "structs",
      "variant",
      "workflow-api",
      "workflow-cps",
      "workflow-durable-task-step",
      "workflow-step-api"
    ],
    "dependency_total": 19,
    "dependency_risk_points": 54,
    "dependency_risk_summary": {
      "deps_with_any_advisory": 8,
      "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 2,
      "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
      "worst_dep_max_cvss": 8.8,
      "worst_dep_id": "workflow-cps",
      "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24"
    },
    "dependency_missing_data": {
      "snapshot_missing": 0,
      "advisories_missing": 0,
      "healthscore_missing": 0
    },
    "dependency_details_top": [
      {
        "plugin_id": "workflow-cps",
        "advisory_count": 11,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
        "recent_advisory_365d": true,
        "max_cvss": 8.8,
        "security_warning_count": 13,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 17,
        "reasons": [
          "11 advisories (+10).",
          "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4).",
          "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "credentials-binding",
        "advisory_count": 6,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2026-05-27",
        "recent_advisory_365d": true,
        "max_cvss": 7.5,
        "security_warning_count": 7,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 17,
        "reasons": [
          "6 advisories (+10).",
          "Max CVSS 7.5 (+4).",
          "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "credentials",
        "advisory_count": 4,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-10-02",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 4.3,
        "security_warning_count": 4,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 10,
        "reasons": [
          "4 advisories (+8).",
          "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "cloudbees-folder",
        "advisory_count": 1,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2023-08-16",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 8.0,
        "security_warning_count": 3,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 6,
        "reasons": [
          "1 advisories (+2).",
          "Max CVSS 8.0 (+4)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "plain-credentials",
        "advisory_count": 1,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-06-26",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 4.3,
        "security_warning_count": 1,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 96,
        "risk_points": 4,
        "reasons": [
          "1 advisories (+2).",
          "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "healthscore_value": 97,
    "healthscore_date": "2026-02-17T00:27:51.403129Z",
    "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
    "score_components": {
      "advisory_history": 8,
      "advisory_severity": 7,
      "staleness": 0,
      "active_warnings": 0,
      "governance": 6,
      "dependency": 5,
      "health_score": 0,
      "security_sensitivity": 0
    }
  }
}