Web interface

CANARY Web Console

Security-advisory forecasting for Jenkins plugins from public signals, evaluated honestly: four validation layers, one pre-registered criterion, and every number on this site traceable to the layer that produced it.

Plugin scoring

Score a plugin

Review the CANARY score, rationale, and supporting evidence.

Core workflow

The forecast comes from the frozen champion configuration applied to the newest panel month; the signals beneath it describe the plugin's current state and are not part of the validated forecast.

AI explanation

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CANARY forecast · as of 2026-06

google-compute-engine

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression: the frozen champion fold model (oot_champion/fold_2025-11, trained on months before 2025-11, labels as known 2025-12) applied to the newest month of the panel. Inference only; no outcome for this month is known yet.

Validated lineage
Share of paneltop 3.7%
Rank76 of 2,053
Score60.6%

Read the rank, not the score. The score is the model's raw output and is not a probability: on the holdout the champion's mean score is about 0.5 against an observed advisory rate of 1 percent. Across the pre-registered holdout, reviewing the top fifth of plugins by this ranking caught about half of the advisories that followed.

Honest track record

Where google-compute-engine ranked before each window

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression, embargoed rolling backtest: the rank this plugin held among every scored plugin at each forecast date, using only what was knowable then. Shaded months are the pre-registered holdout.

Recorded, not re-scored

Scored at 32 forecast dates; on average in the top 1.1% of plugins (top 0.38% across the holdout). An advisory followed within six months of 6 of those dates.

out-of-time holdout0255075100top 20%2023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092025-122023-05 · rank 143 of 2053 · 93th percentile · score 0.690 advisory followed within six months2023-06 · rank 48 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.767 advisory followed within six months2023-07 · rank 46 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.769 advisory followed within six months2023-08 · rank 83 of 2053 · 96th percentile · score 0.726 advisory followed within six months2023-09 · rank 47 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.774 advisory followed within six months2023-10 · rank 35 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.819 advisory followed within six months2023-11 · rank 27 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.845 no advisory within six months2023-12 · rank 29 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.835 no advisory within six months2024-01 · rank 36 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.818 no advisory within six months2024-02 · rank 38 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.818 no advisory within six months2024-03 · rank 38 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.815 no advisory within six months2024-04 · rank 35 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.809 no advisory within six months2024-05 · rank 29 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.811 no advisory within six months2024-06 · rank 5 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.841 no advisory within six months2024-07 · rank 9 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.820 no advisory within six months2024-08 · rank 12 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.812 no advisory within six months2024-09 · rank 13 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.796 no advisory within six months2024-10 · rank 4 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.861 no advisory within six months2024-11 · rank 3 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.865 no advisory within six months2024-12 · rank 4 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.860 no advisory within six months2025-01 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.889 no advisory within six months2025-02 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.893 no advisory within six months2025-03 · rank 4 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.869 no advisory within six months2025-04 · rank 5 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.853 no advisory within six months2025-05 · rank 12 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.800 no advisory within six months2025-06 · rank 8 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.810 no advisory within six months2025-07 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.823 no advisory within six months2025-08 · rank 6 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.822 no advisory within six months2025-09 · rank 6 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.825 no advisory within six months2025-10 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.782 no advisory within six months2025-11 · rank 9 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.761 no advisory within six months2025-12 · rank 18 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.739 no advisory within six monthsadvisory followed within six monthsno advisory in window
Holdout monthScoreRankShare of panelWhat followed
2025-0782.3%7 of 2,053top 0.29%none within six months
2025-0882.2%6 of 2,053top 0.24%none within six months
2025-0982.5%6 of 2,053top 0.24%none within six months
2025-1078.2%7 of 2,053top 0.29%none within six months
2025-1176.1%9 of 2,053top 0.39%none within six months
2025-1273.9%18 of 2,053top 0.83%none within six months

Current-state context

Supporting signals

Maintenance history, governance artifacts, SLSA provenance and known advisories in dependencies, read from the plugin's current public state. A practitioner's dashboard, not part of the validated forecast.

Heuristic · not validated

Key risk signals

  • 3 prior advisory record(s) — history +6, recency +0 (0 within 90d, 0 within 365 days); component total +6 (cap 30).
  • No advisory activity in the last 365 days — historical record only.
  • Advisory severity (max CVSS 6.8 — Medium): +9 (cap 15).
  • Latest release: 2026-07-24.
  • Requires Jenkins core 2.516.3.
  • Last commit: October 12, 2026 — live data from GitHub.
  • Recent release activity supports active maintenance.
  • 5 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.
  • No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).
  • No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).
  • Dependency risk: 4 of 10 dep(s) have advisories; worst: ssh-credentials (CVSS 6.5).
  • Plugin health score 94/100 — acceptable maintenance posture.
Feature details (34 keys)
{
  "advisory_count": 3,
  "latest_advisory_date": "2023-11-29",
  "days_since_latest_advisory": 1076,
  "advisory_within_90d": 0,
  "advisory_within_365d": 0,
  "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
  "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 6.8,
  "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "Medium",
  "swh_present": true,
  "swh_days_since_last_commit": 67.2,
  "swh_commit_count": 10941,
  "swh_has_security_md": false,
  "swh_has_dependabot": false,
  "swh_has_github_actions": false,
  "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
  "swh_has_changelog": true,
  "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 87,
  "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
  "required_core": "2.516.3",
  "dependency_count": 10,
  "security_warning_count": 5,
  "active_security_warning_count": 0,
  "release_timestamp": "2026-07-24T06:24:01+00:00",
  "days_since_release": 107,
  "dependency_plugins": [
    "apache-httpcomponents-client-4-api",
    "commons-text-api",
    "credentials",
    "durable-task",
    "google-oauth-plugin",
    "gson-api",
    "jackson2-api",
    "jsch",
    "ssh-credentials",
    "trilead-api"
  ],
  "dependency_total": 10,
  "dependency_risk_points": 20,
  "dependency_risk_summary": {
    "deps_with_any_advisory": 4,
    "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 0,
    "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
    "worst_dep_max_cvss": 6.5,
    "worst_dep_id": "ssh-credentials",
    "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2018-06-25"
  },
  "dependency_missing_data": {
    "snapshot_missing": 0,
    "advisories_missing": 0,
    "healthscore_missing": 0
  },
  "dependency_details_top": [
    {
      "plugin_id": "credentials",
      "advisory_count": 4,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-10-02",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 4.3,
      "security_warning_count": 4,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 10,
      "reasons": [
        "4 advisories (+8).",
        "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "ssh-credentials",
      "advisory_count": 1,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2018-06-25",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 6.5,
      "security_warning_count": 1,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 96,
      "risk_points": 4,
      "reasons": [
        "1 advisories (+2).",
        "Max CVSS 6.5 (+2)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "trilead-api",
      "advisory_count": 1,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-03-06",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 5.9,
      "security_warning_count": 1,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 4,
      "reasons": [
        "1 advisories (+2).",
        "Max CVSS 5.9 (+2)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "google-oauth-plugin",
      "advisory_count": 1,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2019-10-16",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": null,
      "security_warning_count": 1,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 94,
      "risk_points": 2,
      "reasons": [
        "1 advisories (+2)."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "healthscore_value": 94,
  "healthscore_date": "2025-11-10T12:28:33.463048Z",
  "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
  "score_components": {
    "advisory_history": 6,
    "advisory_severity": 9,
    "staleness": 0,
    "active_warnings": 0,
    "governance": 6,
    "dependency": 5,
    "health_score": 0,
    "security_sensitivity": 0
  }
}
JSON payload
{
  "plugin": "google-compute-engine",
  "score": 26,
  "reasons": [
    "3 prior advisory record(s) — history +6, recency +0 (0 within 90d, 0 within 365 days); component total +6 (cap 30).",
    "No advisory activity in the last 365 days — historical record only.",
    "Advisory severity (max CVSS 6.8 — Medium): +9 (cap 15).",
    "Latest release: 2026-07-24.",
    "Requires Jenkins core 2.516.3.",
    "Recent commit activity (67 days ago) suggests active maintenance.",
    "Recent release activity supports active maintenance.",
    "5 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.",
    "No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).",
    "No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).",
    "Dependency risk: 4 of 10 dep(s) have advisories; worst: ssh-credentials (CVSS 6.5).",
    "Plugin health score 94/100 — acceptable maintenance posture."
  ],
  "features": {
    "advisory_count": 3,
    "latest_advisory_date": "2023-11-29",
    "days_since_latest_advisory": 1076,
    "advisory_within_90d": 0,
    "advisory_within_365d": 0,
    "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
    "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 6.8,
    "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "Medium",
    "swh_present": true,
    "swh_days_since_last_commit": 67.2,
    "swh_commit_count": 10941,
    "swh_has_security_md": false,
    "swh_has_dependabot": false,
    "swh_has_github_actions": false,
    "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
    "swh_has_changelog": true,
    "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 87,
    "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
    "required_core": "2.516.3",
    "dependency_count": 10,
    "security_warning_count": 5,
    "active_security_warning_count": 0,
    "release_timestamp": "2026-07-24T06:24:01+00:00",
    "days_since_release": 107,
    "dependency_plugins": [
      "apache-httpcomponents-client-4-api",
      "commons-text-api",
      "credentials",
      "durable-task",
      "google-oauth-plugin",
      "gson-api",
      "jackson2-api",
      "jsch",
      "ssh-credentials",
      "trilead-api"
    ],
    "dependency_total": 10,
    "dependency_risk_points": 20,
    "dependency_risk_summary": {
      "deps_with_any_advisory": 4,
      "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 0,
      "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
      "worst_dep_max_cvss": 6.5,
      "worst_dep_id": "ssh-credentials",
      "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2018-06-25"
    },
    "dependency_missing_data": {
      "snapshot_missing": 0,
      "advisories_missing": 0,
      "healthscore_missing": 0
    },
    "dependency_details_top": [
      {
        "plugin_id": "credentials",
        "advisory_count": 4,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-10-02",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 4.3,
        "security_warning_count": 4,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 10,
        "reasons": [
          "4 advisories (+8).",
          "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "ssh-credentials",
        "advisory_count": 1,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2018-06-25",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 6.5,
        "security_warning_count": 1,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 96,
        "risk_points": 4,
        "reasons": [
          "1 advisories (+2).",
          "Max CVSS 6.5 (+2)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "trilead-api",
        "advisory_count": 1,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-03-06",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 5.9,
        "security_warning_count": 1,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 4,
        "reasons": [
          "1 advisories (+2).",
          "Max CVSS 5.9 (+2)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "google-oauth-plugin",
        "advisory_count": 1,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2019-10-16",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": null,
        "security_warning_count": 1,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 94,
        "risk_points": 2,
        "reasons": [
          "1 advisories (+2)."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "healthscore_value": 94,
    "healthscore_date": "2025-11-10T12:28:33.463048Z",
    "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
    "score_components": {
      "advisory_history": 6,
      "advisory_severity": 9,
      "staleness": 0,
      "active_warnings": 0,
      "governance": 6,
      "dependency": 5,
      "health_score": 0,
      "security_sensitivity": 0
    }
  }
}