Web interface

CANARY Web Console

Security-advisory forecasting for Jenkins plugins from public signals, evaluated honestly: four validation layers, one pre-registered criterion, and every number on this site traceable to the layer that produced it.

Plugin scoring

Score a plugin

Review the CANARY score, rationale, and supporting evidence.

Core workflow

The forecast comes from the frozen champion configuration applied to the newest panel month; the signals beneath it describe the plugin's current state and are not part of the validated forecast.

AI explanation

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CANARY forecast · as of 2026-06

github-branch-source

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression: the frozen champion fold model (oot_champion/fold_2025-11, trained on months before 2025-11, labels as known 2025-12) applied to the newest month of the panel. Inference only; no outcome for this month is known yet.

Validated lineage
Share of paneltop 0.10%
Rank3 of 2,053
Score79.3%

Read the rank, not the score. The score is the model's raw output and is not a probability: on the holdout the champion's mean score is about 0.5 against an observed advisory rate of 1 percent. Across the pre-registered holdout, reviewing the top fifth of plugins by this ranking caught about half of the advisories that followed.

Honest track record

Where github-branch-source ranked before each window

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression, embargoed rolling backtest: the rank this plugin held among every scored plugin at each forecast date, using only what was knowable then. Shaded months are the pre-registered holdout.

Recorded, not re-scored

Scored at 32 forecast dates; on average in the top 0.62% of plugins (top 0.09% across the holdout). An advisory followed within six months of 3 of those dates.

out-of-time holdout0255075100top 20%2023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092025-122023-05 · rank 39 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.804 no advisory within six months2023-06 · rank 37 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.816 no advisory within six months2023-07 · rank 40 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.794 no advisory within six months2023-08 · rank 25 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.834 no advisory within six months2023-09 · rank 28 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.837 no advisory within six months2023-10 · rank 24 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.857 no advisory within six months2023-11 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.862 no advisory within six months2023-12 · rank 24 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.852 no advisory within six months2024-01 · rank 32 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.844 no advisory within six months2024-02 · rank 35 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.833 no advisory within six months2024-03 · rank 32 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.846 no advisory within six months2024-04 · rank 25 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.853 no advisory within six months2024-05 · rank 3 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.854 no advisory within six months2024-06 · rank 4 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.846 no advisory within six months2024-07 · rank 3 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.864 no advisory within six months2024-08 · rank 1 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.879 no advisory within six months2024-09 · rank 1 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.880 no advisory within six months2024-10 · rank 3 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.862 no advisory within six months2024-11 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.848 no advisory within six months2024-12 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.840 no advisory within six months2025-01 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.818 no advisory within six months2025-02 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.819 no advisory within six months2025-03 · rank 6 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.833 no advisory within six months2025-04 · rank 8 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.811 no advisory within six months2025-05 · rank 11 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.801 no advisory within six months2025-06 · rank 9 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.808 no advisory within six months2025-07 · rank 6 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.833 no advisory within six months2025-08 · rank 3 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.859 no advisory within six months2025-09 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.882 no advisory within six months2025-10 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.893 advisory followed within six months2025-11 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.871 advisory followed within six months2025-12 · rank 2 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.857 advisory followed within six monthsadvisory followed within six monthsno advisory in window
Holdout monthScoreRankShare of panelWhat followed
2025-0783.3%6 of 2,053top 0.24%none within six months
2025-0885.9%3 of 2,053top 0.10%none within six months
2025-0988.2%2 of 2,053top 0.05%none within six months
2025-1089.3%2 of 2,053top 0.05%SECURITY-3702 2026-04-29
2025-1187.1%2 of 2,053top 0.05%SECURITY-3702 2026-04-29
2025-1285.7%2 of 2,053top 0.05%SECURITY-3702 2026-04-29

Current-state context

Supporting signals

Maintenance history, governance artifacts, SLSA provenance and known advisories in dependencies, read from the plugin's current public state. A practitioner's dashboard, not part of the validated forecast.

Heuristic · not validated

Key risk signals

  • 4 prior advisory record(s) — history +8, recency +10 (0 within 90d, 2 within 365 days); component total +18 (cap 30).
  • Advisory severity (max CVSS 5.0 — Medium): +9 (cap 15).
  • Latest release: 2026-08-05.
  • Requires Jenkins core 2.541.1.
  • Last commit: November 2, 2026 — live data from GitHub.
  • Recent release activity supports active maintenance.
  • 5 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.
  • No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).
  • No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).
  • Dependency risk: 3 of 10 dep(s) have advisories; worst: workflow-support (CVSS 8.8).
  • Plugin health score 97/100 — acceptable maintenance posture.
Feature details (34 keys)
{
  "advisory_count": 4,
  "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
  "days_since_latest_advisory": 138,
  "advisory_within_90d": 0,
  "advisory_within_365d": 2,
  "had_advisory_within_365d": true,
  "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 5.0,
  "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "Medium",
  "swh_present": true,
  "swh_days_since_last_commit": 0.0,
  "swh_commit_count": 34824,
  "swh_has_security_md": false,
  "swh_has_dependabot": false,
  "swh_has_github_actions": false,
  "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
  "swh_has_changelog": true,
  "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 2269,
  "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
  "required_core": "2.541.1",
  "dependency_count": 10,
  "security_warning_count": 5,
  "active_security_warning_count": 0,
  "release_timestamp": "2026-08-05T16:27:08+00:00",
  "days_since_release": 95,
  "dependency_plugins": [
    "caffeine-api",
    "commons-lang3-api",
    "credentials",
    "github",
    "github-api",
    "ionicons-api",
    "jackson2-api",
    "jjwt-api",
    "okhttp-api",
    "workflow-support"
  ],
  "dependency_total": 10,
  "dependency_risk_points": 35,
  "dependency_risk_summary": {
    "deps_with_any_advisory": 3,
    "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 1,
    "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
    "worst_dep_max_cvss": 8.8,
    "worst_dep_id": "workflow-support",
    "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2022-10-19"
  },
  "dependency_missing_data": {
    "snapshot_missing": 0,
    "advisories_missing": 0,
    "healthscore_missing": 0
  },
  "dependency_details_top": [
    {
      "plugin_id": "github",
      "advisory_count": 5,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2026-04-29",
      "recent_advisory_365d": true,
      "max_cvss": 8.0,
      "security_warning_count": 6,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 97,
      "risk_points": 17,
      "reasons": [
        "5 advisories (+10).",
        "Max CVSS 8.0 (+4).",
        "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "credentials",
      "advisory_count": 4,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-10-02",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 4.3,
      "security_warning_count": 4,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 10,
      "reasons": [
        "4 advisories (+8).",
        "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "workflow-support",
      "advisory_count": 2,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2022-10-19",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 8.8,
      "security_warning_count": 2,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 8,
      "reasons": [
        "2 advisories (+4).",
        "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4)."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "healthscore_value": 97,
  "healthscore_date": "2026-02-19T13:29:39.992695Z",
  "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
  "score_components": {
    "advisory_history": 18,
    "advisory_severity": 9,
    "staleness": 0,
    "active_warnings": 0,
    "governance": 6,
    "dependency": 5,
    "health_score": 0,
    "security_sensitivity": 0
  }
}
JSON payload
{
  "plugin": "github-branch-source",
  "score": 38,
  "reasons": [
    "4 prior advisory record(s) — history +8, recency +10 (0 within 90d, 2 within 365 days); component total +18 (cap 30).",
    "Advisory severity (max CVSS 5.0 — Medium): +9 (cap 15).",
    "Latest release: 2026-08-05.",
    "Requires Jenkins core 2.541.1.",
    "Recent commit activity (0 days ago) suggests active maintenance.",
    "Recent release activity supports active maintenance.",
    "5 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.",
    "No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).",
    "No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).",
    "Dependency risk: 3 of 10 dep(s) have advisories; worst: workflow-support (CVSS 8.8).",
    "Plugin health score 97/100 — acceptable maintenance posture."
  ],
  "features": {
    "advisory_count": 4,
    "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
    "days_since_latest_advisory": 138,
    "advisory_within_90d": 0,
    "advisory_within_365d": 2,
    "had_advisory_within_365d": true,
    "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 5.0,
    "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "Medium",
    "swh_present": true,
    "swh_days_since_last_commit": 0.0,
    "swh_commit_count": 34824,
    "swh_has_security_md": false,
    "swh_has_dependabot": false,
    "swh_has_github_actions": false,
    "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
    "swh_has_changelog": true,
    "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 2269,
    "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
    "required_core": "2.541.1",
    "dependency_count": 10,
    "security_warning_count": 5,
    "active_security_warning_count": 0,
    "release_timestamp": "2026-08-05T16:27:08+00:00",
    "days_since_release": 95,
    "dependency_plugins": [
      "caffeine-api",
      "commons-lang3-api",
      "credentials",
      "github",
      "github-api",
      "ionicons-api",
      "jackson2-api",
      "jjwt-api",
      "okhttp-api",
      "workflow-support"
    ],
    "dependency_total": 10,
    "dependency_risk_points": 35,
    "dependency_risk_summary": {
      "deps_with_any_advisory": 3,
      "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 1,
      "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
      "worst_dep_max_cvss": 8.8,
      "worst_dep_id": "workflow-support",
      "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2022-10-19"
    },
    "dependency_missing_data": {
      "snapshot_missing": 0,
      "advisories_missing": 0,
      "healthscore_missing": 0
    },
    "dependency_details_top": [
      {
        "plugin_id": "github",
        "advisory_count": 5,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2026-04-29",
        "recent_advisory_365d": true,
        "max_cvss": 8.0,
        "security_warning_count": 6,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 97,
        "risk_points": 17,
        "reasons": [
          "5 advisories (+10).",
          "Max CVSS 8.0 (+4).",
          "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "credentials",
        "advisory_count": 4,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-10-02",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 4.3,
        "security_warning_count": 4,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 10,
        "reasons": [
          "4 advisories (+8).",
          "Max CVSS 4.3 (+2)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "workflow-support",
        "advisory_count": 2,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2022-10-19",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 8.8,
        "security_warning_count": 2,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 8,
        "reasons": [
          "2 advisories (+4).",
          "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4)."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "healthscore_value": 97,
    "healthscore_date": "2026-02-19T13:29:39.992695Z",
    "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
    "score_components": {
      "advisory_history": 18,
      "advisory_severity": 9,
      "staleness": 0,
      "active_warnings": 0,
      "governance": 6,
      "dependency": 5,
      "health_score": 0,
      "security_sensitivity": 0
    }
  }
}