Web interface

CANARY Web Console

Security-advisory forecasting for Jenkins plugins from public signals, evaluated honestly: four validation layers, one pre-registered criterion, and every number on this site traceable to the layer that produced it.

Plugin scoring

Score a plugin

Review the CANARY score, rationale, and supporting evidence.

Core workflow

The forecast comes from the frozen champion configuration applied to the newest panel month; the signals beneath it describe the plugin's current state and are not part of the validated forecast.

AI explanation

Explain this score

Bring your own AI

Copy the prompt below and paste it into Claude, ChatGPT, or any other AI assistant. You control what gets shared.

Show / edit raw prompt

"Explain now" uses the server API key (max 3/hr). "Open in" buttons use your own account with no limits. AI-generated explanations are provided for informational purposes only, may contain inaccuracies or omissions, and should not be relied upon as authoritative security guidance.

CANARY forecast · as of 2026-06

git

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression: the frozen champion fold model (oot_champion/fold_2025-11, trained on months before 2025-11, labels as known 2025-12) applied to the newest month of the panel. Inference only; no outcome for this month is known yet.

Validated lineage
Share of paneltop 0.19%
Rank5 of 2,053
Score72.5%

Read the rank, not the score. The score is the model's raw output and is not a probability: on the holdout the champion's mean score is about 0.5 against an observed advisory rate of 1 percent. Across the pre-registered holdout, reviewing the top fifth of plugins by this ranking caught about half of the advisories that followed.

Honest track record

Where git ranked before each window

Activity-recency clocks + Contributor dynamics · Logistic Regression, embargoed rolling backtest: the rank this plugin held among every scored plugin at each forecast date, using only what was knowable then. Shaded months are the pre-registered holdout.

Recorded, not re-scored

Scored at 32 forecast dates; on average in the top 1.5% of plugins (top 0.88% across the holdout). No advisory followed any of those dates within six months.

out-of-time holdout0255075100top 20%2023-052023-092024-012024-052024-092025-012025-052025-092025-122023-05 · rank 35 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.812 no advisory within six months2023-06 · rank 35 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.821 no advisory within six months2023-07 · rank 41 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.784 no advisory within six months2023-08 · rank 49 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.759 no advisory within six months2023-09 · rank 50 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.773 no advisory within six months2023-10 · rank 54 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.765 no advisory within six months2023-11 · rank 45 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.781 no advisory within six months2023-12 · rank 56 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.756 no advisory within six months2024-01 · rank 54 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.759 no advisory within six months2024-02 · rank 56 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.751 no advisory within six months2024-03 · rank 59 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.750 no advisory within six months2024-04 · rank 58 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.748 no advisory within six months2024-05 · rank 56 of 2053 · 97th percentile · score 0.745 no advisory within six months2024-06 · rank 45 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.781 no advisory within six months2024-07 · rank 45 of 2053 · 98th percentile · score 0.777 no advisory within six months2024-08 · rank 7 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.828 no advisory within six months2024-09 · rank 8 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.828 no advisory within six months2024-10 · rank 10 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.819 no advisory within six months2024-11 · rank 22 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.773 no advisory within six months2024-12 · rank 23 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.767 no advisory within six months2025-01 · rank 12 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.796 no advisory within six months2025-02 · rank 10 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.809 no advisory within six months2025-03 · rank 16 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.767 no advisory within six months2025-04 · rank 13 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.783 no advisory within six months2025-05 · rank 9 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.814 no advisory within six months2025-06 · rank 13 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.802 no advisory within six months2025-07 · rank 8 of 2053 · 100th percentile · score 0.809 no advisory within six months2025-08 · rank 22 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.746 no advisory within six months2025-09 · rank 12 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.773 no advisory within six months2025-10 · rank 21 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.733 no advisory within six months2025-11 · rank 26 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.699 no advisory within six months2025-12 · rank 25 of 2053 · 99th percentile · score 0.718 no advisory within six monthsadvisory followed within six monthsno advisory in window
Holdout monthScoreRankShare of panelWhat followed
2025-0780.9%8 of 2,053top 0.34%none within six months
2025-0874.6%22 of 2,053top 1.0%none within six months
2025-0977.3%12 of 2,053top 0.54%none within six months
2025-1073.3%21 of 2,053top 0.97%none within six months
2025-1169.9%26 of 2,053top 1.2%none within six months
2025-1271.8%25 of 2,053top 1.2%none within six months

Current-state context

Supporting signals

Maintenance history, governance artifacts, SLSA provenance and known advisories in dependencies, read from the plugin's current public state. A practitioner's dashboard, not part of the validated forecast.

Heuristic · not validated

Key risk signals

  • 9 prior advisory record(s) — history +15, recency +0 (0 within 90d, 0 within 365 days); component total +15 (cap 30).
  • No advisory activity in the last 365 days — historical record only.
  • Advisory severity (max CVSS 7.5 — High): +15 (cap 15).
  • Latest release: 2026-03-25.
  • Requires Jenkins core 2.504.3.
  • Last commit: October 16, 2026 — live data from GitHub.
  • 9 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.
  • No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).
  • No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).
  • No changelog detected — release transparency limited (+2).
  • Dependency risk: 12 of 17 dep(s) have advisories; worst: git-client (CVSS 8.8).
  • Plugin health score 100/100 — acceptable maintenance posture.
Feature details (34 keys)
{
  "advisory_count": 9,
  "latest_advisory_date": "2022-08-23",
  "days_since_latest_advisory": 1539,
  "advisory_within_90d": 0,
  "advisory_within_365d": 0,
  "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
  "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 7.5,
  "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "High",
  "swh_present": true,
  "swh_days_since_last_commit": 4.6,
  "swh_commit_count": 77897,
  "swh_has_security_md": false,
  "swh_has_dependabot": false,
  "swh_has_github_actions": false,
  "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
  "swh_has_changelog": false,
  "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 3010,
  "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
  "required_core": "2.504.3",
  "dependency_count": 17,
  "security_warning_count": 9,
  "active_security_warning_count": 0,
  "release_timestamp": "2026-03-25T20:14:00+00:00",
  "days_since_release": 228,
  "dependency_plugins": [
    "commons-lang3-api",
    "configuration-as-code",
    "credentials",
    "credentials-binding",
    "git-client",
    "ionicons-api",
    "mailer",
    "matrix-project",
    "parameterized-trigger",
    "promoted-builds",
    "scm-api",
    "script-security",
    "ssh-credentials",
    "structs",
    "token-macro",
    "workflow-scm-step",
    "workflow-step-api"
  ],
  "dependency_total": 17,
  "dependency_risk_points": 74,
  "dependency_risk_summary": {
    "deps_with_any_advisory": 12,
    "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 3,
    "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
    "worst_dep_max_cvss": 8.8,
    "worst_dep_id": "git-client",
    "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24"
  },
  "dependency_missing_data": {
    "snapshot_missing": 0,
    "advisories_missing": 0,
    "healthscore_missing": 0
  },
  "dependency_details_top": [
    {
      "plugin_id": "git-client",
      "advisory_count": 6,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
      "recent_advisory_365d": true,
      "max_cvss": 8.8,
      "security_warning_count": 6,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 17,
      "reasons": [
        "6 advisories (+10).",
        "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4).",
        "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "script-security",
      "advisory_count": 26,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
      "recent_advisory_365d": true,
      "max_cvss": 8.8,
      "security_warning_count": 28,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 17,
      "reasons": [
        "26 advisories (+10).",
        "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4).",
        "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "credentials-binding",
      "advisory_count": 6,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2026-05-27",
      "recent_advisory_365d": true,
      "max_cvss": 7.5,
      "security_warning_count": 7,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 100,
      "risk_points": 17,
      "reasons": [
        "6 advisories (+10).",
        "Max CVSS 7.5 (+4).",
        "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "matrix-project",
      "advisory_count": 4,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2024-01-24",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 8.8,
      "security_warning_count": 5,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 97,
      "risk_points": 12,
      "reasons": [
        "4 advisories (+8).",
        "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4)."
      ]
    },
    {
      "plugin_id": "promoted-builds",
      "advisory_count": 3,
      "latest_advisory_date": "2022-04-12",
      "recent_advisory_365d": false,
      "max_cvss": 8.0,
      "security_warning_count": 4,
      "active_security_warning_count": 0,
      "healthscore": 80,
      "risk_points": 11,
      "reasons": [
        "3 advisories (+6).",
        "Max CVSS 8.0 (+4).",
        "Health score 80 (+1)."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "healthscore_value": 100,
  "healthscore_date": "2026-02-24T03:27:49.683145Z",
  "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
  "score_components": {
    "advisory_history": 15,
    "advisory_severity": 15,
    "staleness": 0,
    "active_warnings": 0,
    "governance": 8,
    "dependency": 5,
    "health_score": 0,
    "security_sensitivity": 0
  }
}
JSON payload
{
  "plugin": "git",
  "score": 43,
  "reasons": [
    "9 prior advisory record(s) — history +15, recency +0 (0 within 90d, 0 within 365 days); component total +15 (cap 30).",
    "No advisory activity in the last 365 days — historical record only.",
    "Advisory severity (max CVSS 7.5 — High): +15 (cap 15).",
    "Latest release: 2026-03-25.",
    "Requires Jenkins core 2.504.3.",
    "Recent commit activity (4 days ago) suggests active maintenance.",
    "9 historical security warning(s) — none currently active.",
    "No SECURITY.md — vulnerability reporting process undocumented (+3).",
    "No Dependabot or GitHub Actions detected — limited automated maintenance (+3).",
    "No changelog detected — release transparency limited (+2).",
    "Dependency risk: 12 of 17 dep(s) have advisories; worst: git-client (CVSS 8.8).",
    "Plugin health score 100/100 — acceptable maintenance posture."
  ],
  "features": {
    "advisory_count": 9,
    "latest_advisory_date": "2022-08-23",
    "days_since_latest_advisory": 1539,
    "advisory_within_90d": 0,
    "advisory_within_365d": 0,
    "had_advisory_within_365d": false,
    "max_cvss_base_score_observed": 7.5,
    "max_cvss_severity_label_observed": "High",
    "swh_present": true,
    "swh_days_since_last_commit": 4.6,
    "swh_commit_count": 77897,
    "swh_has_security_md": false,
    "swh_has_dependabot": false,
    "swh_has_github_actions": false,
    "swh_has_tests_directory": true,
    "swh_has_changelog": false,
    "swh_security_fix_commit_count": 3010,
    "has_plugin_snapshot": true,
    "required_core": "2.504.3",
    "dependency_count": 17,
    "security_warning_count": 9,
    "active_security_warning_count": 0,
    "release_timestamp": "2026-03-25T20:14:00+00:00",
    "days_since_release": 228,
    "dependency_plugins": [
      "commons-lang3-api",
      "configuration-as-code",
      "credentials",
      "credentials-binding",
      "git-client",
      "ionicons-api",
      "mailer",
      "matrix-project",
      "parameterized-trigger",
      "promoted-builds",
      "scm-api",
      "script-security",
      "ssh-credentials",
      "structs",
      "token-macro",
      "workflow-scm-step",
      "workflow-step-api"
    ],
    "dependency_total": 17,
    "dependency_risk_points": 74,
    "dependency_risk_summary": {
      "deps_with_any_advisory": 12,
      "deps_with_recent_advisory_365d": 3,
      "deps_with_active_warning": 0,
      "worst_dep_max_cvss": 8.8,
      "worst_dep_id": "git-client",
      "worst_dep_latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24"
    },
    "dependency_missing_data": {
      "snapshot_missing": 0,
      "advisories_missing": 0,
      "healthscore_missing": 0
    },
    "dependency_details_top": [
      {
        "plugin_id": "git-client",
        "advisory_count": 6,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
        "recent_advisory_365d": true,
        "max_cvss": 8.8,
        "security_warning_count": 6,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 17,
        "reasons": [
          "6 advisories (+10).",
          "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4).",
          "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "script-security",
        "advisory_count": 26,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2026-06-24",
        "recent_advisory_365d": true,
        "max_cvss": 8.8,
        "security_warning_count": 28,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 17,
        "reasons": [
          "26 advisories (+10).",
          "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4).",
          "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "credentials-binding",
        "advisory_count": 6,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2026-05-27",
        "recent_advisory_365d": true,
        "max_cvss": 7.5,
        "security_warning_count": 7,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 100,
        "risk_points": 17,
        "reasons": [
          "6 advisories (+10).",
          "Max CVSS 7.5 (+4).",
          "Recent advisory within 365d (+3)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "matrix-project",
        "advisory_count": 4,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2024-01-24",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 8.8,
        "security_warning_count": 5,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 97,
        "risk_points": 12,
        "reasons": [
          "4 advisories (+8).",
          "Max CVSS 8.8 (+4)."
        ]
      },
      {
        "plugin_id": "promoted-builds",
        "advisory_count": 3,
        "latest_advisory_date": "2022-04-12",
        "recent_advisory_365d": false,
        "max_cvss": 8.0,
        "security_warning_count": 4,
        "active_security_warning_count": 0,
        "healthscore": 80,
        "risk_points": 11,
        "reasons": [
          "3 advisories (+6).",
          "Max CVSS 8.0 (+4).",
          "Health score 80 (+1)."
        ]
      }
    ],
    "healthscore_value": 100,
    "healthscore_date": "2026-02-24T03:27:49.683145Z",
    "healthscore_collected_at": "2026-02-28T16:43:20+00:00",
    "score_components": {
      "advisory_history": 15,
      "advisory_severity": 15,
      "staleness": 0,
      "active_warnings": 0,
      "governance": 8,
      "dependency": 5,
      "health_score": 0,
      "security_sensitivity": 0
    }
  }
}